2015 NBA Draft Collective Rankings: June 2nd

June is finally here, but the NBA Finals have yet to begin after a very long layover.  It's the perfect time to see where the players rank again this month.  You can see how the rankings shook down last month here. These rankings consist of averaging the rankings of my three favorite NBA draft big boards (DraftExpress.com, NBADraft.net, and ESPN's Chad Ford).

Keep in mind, these are top rankings, not a mock draft.  The NBA Draft Lottery gave Minnesota the top spot, followed by the Lakers and Sixers, but we're not interested in what each team will do individually.  From a purely academic standpoint, we're hoping to rank the best players in the long term.  If one might perform a "re-draft" 8 years from now, it will be fun to look back to see how close these pre-draft boards had been.

Player	Pos.	School	Class	Average	Std Dev.
Karl-Anthony Towns	C	Kentucky	Fr.	1	0
Jahlil Okafor	C	Duke	Fr.	2	0
D'Angelo Russell	PG	Ohio State	Fr.	3	1
Emmanuel Mudiay	PG	Guangdong	1996	4	1
Justise Winslow	SG/SF	Duke	Fr.	6	1
Mario Hezonja	SG/SF	FC Barcelona	1995	6	1
Kristaps Porzingis	PF	Cajasol Sevilla	1995	7	3
Willie Cauley-Stein	C	Kentucky	Jr.	9	3
Stanley Johnson	SF	Arizona	Fr.	9	1
Myles Turner	C	Texas	Fr.	11	2
Devin Booker	SG	Kentucky	Fr.	12	1
Trey Lyles	PF	Kentucky	Fr.	13	6
Cameron Payne	PG	Murray St.	So.	14	6
Frank Kaminsky	C	Wisconsin	Sr.	14	5
Sam Dekker	SF	Wisconsin	Jr.	15	1
Bobby Portis	PF	Arkansas	So.	16	2
Jerian Grant	PG	Notre Dame	Sr.	16	1
Kelly Oubre	SF	Kansas	Fr.	18	1
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	SF	Arizona	So.	20	6
Kevon Looney	PF	UCLA	Fr.	20	2
Tyus Jones	PG	Duke	Fr.	21	8
Montrezl Harrell	PF	Louisville	Jr.	23	1
Delon Wright	PG/SG	Utah	Sr.	23	6
Justin Anderson	SF	Virginia	Jr.	24	4
RJ Hunter	SG	Georgia St.	Jr.	25	4
Chris McCullough	PF	Syracuse	Fr.	28	6
Christian Wood	PF	UNLV	So.	28	6
Jarell Martin	PF	LSU	So.	29	2
Rashad Vaughn	SG	UNLV	Fr.	31	11

Looks a lot like last month, but there are a couple of "Hot" names where guys are moving up the boards quickly.  There's also a name which has cooled quite a bit as of late.

Who's Hot: Devin Booker and Cameron Payne.  Each of these players have moved up four spots from last month.  Both are getting much more love from NBADraft.net and Chad Ford than they were getting before.  Jonathan Givony hasn't changed these guys as much on the Draft Express board, but they have moved up a bit there as well.  

Who's Not: Kelly Oubre.  Kelly has dropped eight spots on average, but all the boards have dropped him a similar amount.  For a kid with all the talent in the world, there just seems to be something missing.  My guess is that scouts may question his work ethic and instincts to play a winning brand of basketball.  He could be a "pendulum swing" type of pick for someone willing to play the risk/reward game with their draft pick.  

It will be fun to see how the mock drafts change over the next few weeks, but these big board rankings shouldn't change as much.  We'll see.

 

2015 NBA Draft Collective Rankings: May 9th

Keep in mind, these are top rankings, not a mock draft.  The NBA Draft Lottery on May 19th will clarify the order for teams making the picks (which will help the draft gurus guess what teams will do), but from a purely academic standpoint, we're looking at who'll become the best players in the long term.  If one might perform a "re-draft" 8 years from now, it will be fun to look back to see how close these pre-draft boards had been.

Next week, the NBA Combine begins in Chicago.  Most of the projected second round players who received invites will participate in a couple of 5-on-5 format workouts, but the top 20 or so players can opt out of the 5-on-5.  As a result of the combine, we probably won't see tons of movement at the top of the rankings, but we'll see a few "workout wonders" fly up the boards from seemingly nowhere.  We'll also see a few guys slip a little if they're not standing out among their peers.

Last month, I posted my second set of "collective" rankings. These rankings consist of averaging the rankings of my three favorite NBA draft big boards (DraftExpress.com, NBADraft.net, and ESPN's Chad Ford).  Shockingly, the entire top 12 players are  still averaging out to be slotted in the same order as last month!  The three draft boards have individually shifted a bit, but they've cancelled one another out in my aggregate table.  Let's take a look:

Player	Average	Std. Dev
Karl-Anthony Towns	1	0
Jahlil Okafor	2	0
Emmanuel Mudiay	3	0
D'Angelo Russell	4	0
Justise Winslow	5	1
Kristaps Porzingis	6	2
Mario Hezonja	8	1
Willie Cauley-Stein	8	3
Stanley Johnson	9	2
Kelly Oubre	11	1
Myles Turner	11	2
Sam Dekker	13	1
Trey Lyles	14	4
Frank Kaminsky	15	6
Jerian Grant	16	2
Kevon Looney	16	6
Devin Booker	16	3
Bobby Portis	16	1
Cameron Payne	17	3
Montrezl Harrell	21	2
Tyus Jones	22	3
Christian Wood	23	4
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	24	2
Delon Wright	25	2
RJ Hunter	25	4
Justin Anderson	26	2
Terry Rozier	27	5
Jarell Martin	28	3
Chris McCullough	28	9

• Spots 1-4:  Even though there seems to be a consensus among the draft experts, there is not much separating these players from one another.  Perhaps the biggest reason Karl-Anthony Towns (1) is at the top is because of his size and two-way potential.  If Jahlil Okafor (2) was a rim protector, if Emmanuel Mudiay (3) could shoot, if D'Angelo Russell (4) was more of an athletic leaper, the landscape would look much different here at the top.

• Spots 5-9:  This is a pretty interesting group.  The biggest risk might be taking Kristaps Porzingis (6), as he's got a long way to go to be able to contribute in the NBA.  The safest pick might be Willie Cauley-Stein (8), as everyone is confident in what he can do and what his role can be in the league.  The three wing players in Justise Winslow (5), Stanley Johnson (9) and Mario Hezonja (8) have been jostling for position on draft boards throughout the season.  Winslow had such a great tourney, Johnson really asserted himself (as a freshman) on a great team, and Hezonja showed tons of heart, shooting and skill in limited minutes in Europe.  Any team  in need of a wing (picking outside of the top ten) would be ecstatic to get any one of the three.

• The rest of the board is fairly closely grouped, considering these are just opinions of different experts.  Two notable variations are Frank Kaminsky (15) and Kevon Looney (16).  NBADraft.net is down on Kaminsky, which is understandable if you focus too much on his age and what he can't do.  Kevon Looney, on the other hand, has been high on Chad Ford's big board for a while.  It seems some scouts like his age and what he can't do (yet).

There's a lot of pieces about to fall into place the next couple weeks.  We'll be anxiously awaiting the combine next week and the draft lottery the following week to see how things shake down.  Enjoy!

2015 NBA Draft Collective Rankings: April 2nd

One month ago, I posted the first "collective" rankings of my three favorite NBA draft big boards (DraftExpress.com, NBADraft.net, and ESPN's Chad Ford).  This month some things have definitely changed.  Let's take a look:

Player	Ave
Karl-Anthony Towns	1
Jahlil Okafor	3
Emmanuel Mudiay	3
D'Angelo Russell	3
Justise Winslow	6
Kristaps Porzingis	7
Mario Hezonja	7
Willie Cauley-Stein	8
Stanley Johnson	8
Kelly Oubre	11
Myles Turner	12
Kevon Looney	13
Bobby Portis	14
Trey Lyles	16
Frank Kaminsky	16
Devin Booker	17
Jerian Grant	18
Kris Dunn	18
Montrezl Harrell	20
Jakob Poeltl	23

First and Second Tier:

I've been reluctant to embrace a non-rim-protecting big as the number one overall pick.  It's interesting to see folks who do this for a living are slowly hopping off the Jahlil Okafor (3) bandwagon.  

Karl-Anthony Towns (1) has now grabbed the top spot across the boards due to his upside on both ends of the floor.  He may not be as tricky in the post as Okafor, but he's a bruiser with more face-up potential on offense and a great wingspan and timing on defense.

Joining Okafor in this "second tier" of guys slotted at number three, Emmanuel Mudiay (3) is an athletic and skilled point guard with the size and strength to punish defenders at the point of attack.  As he learns the NBA game and shows a consistent effort, he'll be a great piece for one of the lottery winners.  If he adds a consistent jumper, look out.

The other guard slotted here is a personal favorite of mine: D'Angelo Russell (3).  Why do I like "DAR" so much?  He's got incredible open-court vision and passing ability and he's a very effective shooter (especially from three) both spotting up and off the dribble.  Granted, his athleticism and quickness may limit his upside, so chances are he won't make a living at the free throw line like James Harden does in the NBA. Still, he's young, he's got the tools and IQ to make teammates better, and he spaces the floor, which are special combination in a top 5 guard in any draft.

Large Group / Small Forwards:

As the college basketball season unfolded, I was unsure whether I preferred Duke's Justise Winslow (6) or Arizona's Stanley Johnson (8).  Both freshmen are two-way wing players who can be defensive stoppers, hit the three or finish above the rim.  Winslow just makes winning plays which don't always show up in the boxscore.  Justise's athleticism, effort and decent touch from behind the arc will make him a winner at the next level too.  Johnson is big and strong and quick.  Stanley's game probably translates better to the spacing of the NBA, and his offensive IQ has been widely underrated.  I've noticed him anticipate how plays are about to develop as he makes a read and fires a nice pass to an open teammate, so I think he has a nice feel for the game for such a young player.

Spanish wing Mario Hezonja (7) has great range and is not afraid to use it, but he can also finish above the rim.  I watched a couple of his Barcelona games this season.  He can handle the ball as well, so he'll be able to play the two for sure in the NBA.  One game stands out, as he was aggressive and effective on offense, but his coach sat him on the bench for repeatedly letting his man blow right by him on defense.  He's a skilled athlete, so there may be hope for his defense.  The other thing which stood out is his demonstrative behavior on the court.  When he didn't get the call, or if a teammate made a mistake, Mario definitely wore his heart on his sleeve.  Hopefully, he can turn that passion into a positive and become good influence on his team and work to improve his own game, especially his defense.

Let's not forget about Kelly Oubre (11) from Kansas.  Kelly's performance was not on the same trajectory as the other two Americans, but his potential is still intact as an athletic two-way guy in his own right.  Does he have the heart and drive to reach his potential?  The same could be asked of all of these guys.

Big Questions:

Kristaps Porzingis (7) is a sweet-shooting, smooth-finishing big man who sets good screens and likes to score.  Unfortunately, that's the extent of the positives I can say about him.  I must confess, I only saw one of his Seville games, so please take the following rant with a grain of salt. He was too thin, he didn't get into a defensive stance to adequately defend people, he didn't box out, he was unwilling to go after loose balls and he took shots that would give a coach gray hairs.  Whoever drafts him will need to teach him how to make winning plays in the game of basketball as they work on improving his body.  This is a project, but for the right team/system/coach, perhaps Kristaps could become a great player.  I wouldn't draft him in the lottery, myself, but what do I know?  He could have been drafted last year, but pulled his name out late in the process.  If I made my own big board, he'd be listed in the late teens/early twenties at best.

Willie Cauley-Stein (8)  On the defensive end of the court, WCS can stay in front of just about anyone, so that will allow his coach to switch on screens to his heart's content.  If he continues to work and improve his 18 foot jumper, then he'll be a fine NBA player for a long time.  If he loses interest, well...

Myles Turner (12) What's the deal with how he runs?  He looks awkward, but he seems to be effective as a big man.  Could his legs just be super efficient and we haven't actually seen someone like that before, so it looks strange to us?  Trust me, teams will do their due-diligence when evaluating this young man.

Anyway, I could write tons more about the next set of bigs; Lyles, Portis and Kaminsky, but we'll save them for another time. Kris Dunn and Devin Booker are players I like a lot, though they have a couple of warts too.

Overall, this 2015 draft will probably be considered a strong one in a few years.  While there are no obvious superstars, there will be plenty of good starters and role players to be had (along with the disappointments found in every draft).  Who's going to be great?  Who will be out of the league after their rookie deal?  I hope to come back and reevaluate these guys in a few years.

Prospective Player Prognosis: Jahlil Okafor

A look at Duke's offensive prodigy, Jahlil Okafor

Twenty years ago, if someone told me there was a 6'11" 270 lbs Duke freshman center averaging 18 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game, while possessing "Dream-like" footwork (did you see what I did there?), I think it would have been a no-brainer to expect him to be the consensus top overall draft prospect.  And for most of this season, he has been the guy that all the draft pundits have told us will go #1 in the 2015 draft.

Okafor can score in the post with ease. Between his length, touch and footwork, he gets points with an elite back-to-the-basket game.  If he's double-teamed, he is not only a willing passer, but always looks to keep the offense flowing with a nice pass to an open teammate.  He can certainly rebound with the best of them, too.

Back to my original point about twenty years ago.  I would have considered his skillset to be such a rare commodity in the 80's and 90's.  Surely, he would be an obvious candidate as the number one pick because you didn't get many opportunities to snag a bigman like Okafor and make him your franchise center to anchor your team for the next decade.  What about now?  Well, this isn't your father's Association anymore.

The league shifted away from big post-players who score with their back to the basket.  Remember the enigmatic "illegal defense" calls we had to endure in the 80's and 90's?  This had the effect of keeping the floor spaced so big men could show their stuff on the low block.  When the league replaced the illegal defense with the defensive 3-second rule, teams could now sag towards the middle of the floor, making it much harder to operate down low.  Also, adding the "no hand-check" rule, to help perimeter players get to the basket at will, made it much easier for smaller, more-plentiful players to get buckets.  Perhaps there has been a lack of talent at the center position in the league for a while now or maybe it's due to the rule changes, but there's a reason the center position was eventually removed from the all-star ballot.  

Today's analytically-driven, perimeter-oriented NBA is all about "3 and D":

• Three point shots and shooters are prized for their ultra efficient points per possession.  
• Attack-style guards and wings put tons of pressure on defenses and either create open looks from downtown, or get to the free-throw line (which is another highly-efficient scoring opportunity).  
• Perimeter defenders who can close out and move laterally are a necessary ingredient for championship contenders.  
• Rim-protectors are suddenly mentioned in the same breath as "sliced bread".  

Does Okafor fall into any of the above-mentioned categories?  Nope.

On offense: Will he score better than Al Jefferson?  What about Carlos Boozer in his prime?  Because of his size, agility and passing, I would put him above those guys, even though he hasn't shown much of a jumper yet. With the right teammates and system, maybe he could be the best player on a championship team.  In the wrong situation, though, he could find himself putting up a lot of "empty" stats without making winning plays.

On defense: If you've watched the Blue Devils this year, you may have noticed Okafor has difficulty protecting the rim or defending the pick-and-roll consistently.  This could put pressure on his future NBA coach, as he may have to substitute Okafor's offense to shore up the defense during crunch time.  When watching basketball games, we're always told by commentators about how "young players haven't learned to play defense".  This is partly true, but if you've played basketball your whole life, you've either got the instincts to use your body to take away an angle or time a block, or you don't. Of course, he's still young, but he may never be more than an average defender and a spotty shot-blocker.  

Jahlil Okafor is definitely a top four talent in this year's NBA draft.  He'll put up numbers and will be a fine pro for many years.  Is he the right fit for your team?  Will the team who drafts him have a heavy burden of finding personnel to fit his old-school style?  Time will tell.  Come back in five years and let me know how far off-base I was with this one.

2015 NBA Draft Collective Rankings: Feb 26th

2015 NBA Draft Collective Rankings: Feb 26th

As we approach the last few weeks of the college basketball regular season, top players are putting it all on the line.  Not only are these guys playing for their respective team's success, but some may actually have a shot at being selected in the 2015 NBA draft.  I've been an avid basketball lover for many years and have had an especially strong affinity for the NBA draft.  One of my favorite pastimes over the years is to look at mock drafts to see what college players to keep an eye on.  For over ten years, websites such as NBADraft.net and DraftExpress.com have kept my mind occupied on the subject of the draft, and to them I am grateful.  

The sites mentioned above, as well as ESPN, each have their own ranking or "Big Board" of 100 of the top prospects in the world.  This differs from a mock draft in that these players are usually ranked by pure potential, rather than what team might pick them during the draft.  As of now in late February, the bottom-dweller teams of the NBA are still jockeying for position and ping-pong balls, so the draft order is far from set.  The final fate of these teams' drafting order will be decided by the draft lottery on May 19th.

Today, I was curious to see where my favorite top 100 boards ranked some of the projected lottery players.  I took the DraftExpress, NBADraft.net and Chad Ford rankings and created a "collective" grouping by calculating the averages of the top players to see where they fall:

Player	Average
Jahlil Okafor	1
Karl-Anthony Towns	3
Emmanuel Mudiay	3
D'Angelo Russell	4
Stanley Johnson	6
Kristaps Porzingis	8
Mario Hezonja	8
Myles Turner	8
Kevon Looney	9
Willie Cauley-Stein	9
Kelly Oubre	10
Justise Winslow	12
Devin Booker	14
Frank Kaminsky	14
Trey Lyles	14

The top four players in the table above are grouped near the top in all of the boards, but from there the rankings are all over the place.  This is to be expected because even on draft day, many of us are left in shock as players are picked way higher than expected, while others slide or even free-fall beyond any pundit's mock draft projection. 

That factor of surprise is what makes the draft so interesting, especially when your team is near the top (or bottom, depending on how you look at it) of the draft and you're hoping for a young, talented savior to become the next NBA superstar.  

Over the next few weeks, I'll chime in on each of the top players and discuss their strengths and weaknesses, along with projections of how their career might play out in the NBA.  If you're reading these installments, you probably won't learn anything earth-shattering, but I hope to get some of my thoughts out there for posterity's sake.  Let's see where it takes us.