Twenty years ago, if someone told me there was a 6'11" 270 lbs Duke freshman center averaging 18 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game, while possessing "Dream-like" footwork (did you see what I did there?), I think it would have been a no-brainer to expect him to be the consensus top overall draft prospect. And for most of this season, he has been the guy that all the draft pundits have told us will go #1 in the 2015 draft.
Okafor can score in the post with ease. Between his length, touch and footwork, he gets points with an elite back-to-the-basket game. If he's double-teamed, he is not only a willing passer, but always looks to keep the offense flowing with a nice pass to an open teammate. He can certainly rebound with the best of them, too.
Back to my original point about twenty years ago. I would have considered his skillset to be such a rare commodity in the 80's and 90's. Surely, he would be an obvious candidate as the number one pick because you didn't get many opportunities to snag a bigman like Okafor and make him your franchise center to anchor your team for the next decade. What about now? Well, this isn't your father's Association anymore.
The league shifted away from big post-players who score with their back to the basket. Remember the enigmatic "illegal defense" calls we had to endure in the 80's and 90's? This had the effect of keeping the floor spaced so big men could show their stuff on the low block. When the league replaced the illegal defense with the defensive 3-second rule, teams could now sag towards the middle of the floor, making it much harder to operate down low. Also, adding the "no hand-check" rule, to help perimeter players get to the basket at will, made it much easier for smaller, more-plentiful players to get buckets. Perhaps there has been a lack of talent at the center position in the league for a while now or maybe it's due to the rule changes, but there's a reason the center position was eventually removed from the all-star ballot.
Today's analytically-driven, perimeter-oriented NBA is all about "3 and D":
- Three point shots and shooters are prized for their ultra efficient points per possession.
- Attack-style guards and wings put tons of pressure on defenses and either create open looks from downtown, or get to the free-throw line (which is another highly-efficient scoring opportunity).
- Perimeter defenders who can close out and move laterally are a necessary ingredient for championship contenders.
- Rim-protectors are suddenly mentioned in the same breath as "sliced bread".
On offense: Will he score better than Al Jefferson? What about Carlos Boozer in his prime? Because of his size, agility and passing, I would put him above those guys, even though he hasn't shown much of a jumper yet. With the right teammates and system, maybe he could be the best player on a championship team. In the wrong situation, though, he could find himself putting up a lot of "empty" stats without making winning plays.
On defense: If you've watched the Blue Devils this year, you may have noticed Okafor has difficulty protecting the rim or defending the pick-and-roll consistently. This could put pressure on his future NBA coach, as he may have to substitute Okafor's offense to shore up the defense during crunch time. When watching basketball games, we're always told by commentators about how "young players haven't learned to play defense". This is partly true, but if you've played basketball your whole life, you've either got the instincts to use your body to take away an angle or time a block, or you don't. Of course, he's still young, but he may never be more than an average defender and a spotty shot-blocker.
Jahlil Okafor is definitely a top four talent in this year's NBA draft. He'll put up numbers and will be a fine pro for many years. Is he the right fit for your team? Will the team who drafts him have a heavy burden of finding personnel to fit his old-school style? Time will tell. Come back in five years and let me know how far off-base I was with this one.
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